2025 Kentucky Derby Odds, Time, and Prediction

Our 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction is that the May 3 event is really going to be the “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.”

Horse racing odds confirm this – there’s no clear favorite, with the two top favorites being priced at +300 (Journalism) and +700 (Sovereignty) having odds of +1000 or longer.

2025 Kentucky Derby Odds

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When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky
• Date: Saturday, May 3, 2025
• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: NBC

Reasons Why Journalism is the 2025 Kentucky Derby Favorite

This 3-year-old bay colt is sired by the legendary Curlin and out of Mopotism, a daughter of Uncle Mo, giving him the kind of pedigree built for the 1¼-mile grind at Churchill Downs.

With Umberto Rispoli in the saddle, Journalism has consistently found that perfect stalking position – sitting close enough to strike, but far enough to stay out of early chaos.

It’s a style that suits Derby traffic and one that’s already delivered results – he’s 4-for-5 heading into the Run for the Roses.

This includes a trio of dominant stakes wins in California. His standout performance came at the Santa Anita Derby, where he surged late to snatch victory after facing a rough mid-race trip. That effort earned him an Equibase Speed Figure of 110, which is the second highest among 3-year-old males.

Knowing all this, it’s no surprise that Journalism is the name on every expert’s lips. The horse received 29 of 30 first-place votes in the most recent NTRA poll.

Online sportsbooks are fully on board, listing him as the +300 favorite. His only serious rival in the 2025 Kentucky Derby seems to be Sovereignty, who’s priced at +700.

Sovereignty’s 2025 Kentucky Derby Odds Suggest He Could Win

Sovereignty is a son of Into Mischief, one of the most prolific sires in recent memory. On the dam’s side, Crowned adds depth and class, hailing from a line of proven Grade 1 talent.

In five starts, Sovereignty has posted 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes, including a statement performance in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. He may not have taken the win, but finishing second was still a fantastic result.

But it’s not just about the horse; it’s also about the jockey. The man in question is Manny Franco, a seasoned rider who tends to do great under pressure, the evidence being that five years ago, he won the Belmont Stakes race. 

Kentucky Derby Underdogs to Watch Out For

One of the reasons why the Kentucky Derby is labeled “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” is that everyone stands a chance of winning. Surprises happen often, with major underdogs finishing first in the last couple of years.

Last year, for example, Mystic Dan won the race despite coming to Churchill Downs as a +2000 underdog. A year before, +1700 underdog Mage won the race. Will something similar happen in the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

If it does happen, which horse will pull it off? Well, here are some underdogs to watch out for:

• Sandman (+1000) – He’s unbeaten in three starts, with his most impressive run happening in the Louisiana Derby, where he surged late to win by open lengths.
• Burnham Square (+1000) – He’s earned 130 points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying series, which is more than any other horse in this year’s field.
• Rodriguez (+1400) – On April 5 at Wood Memorial Stakes, this horse achieved an Equibase Speed Figure of 111 (one point higher than Journalism’s best number).  

In addition to those, we also think that Final Gambit (+2500), Publisher (+3300), and Owen Almighty (+5000) stand a good chance of upsetting the odds on May 3. But who do we think will actually win?

2025 Kentucky Derby Prediction

Journalism is the clear favorite with 2025 Kentucky Derby odds of +300. But that’s actually what worries us given that top favorites rarely win at Churchill Downs.

Despite that, we’re going to back this horse – his pedigree, recent record, and his jockey’s racing tactics make us confident he’s going to win.

Pick: Journalism