Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg UFC Mexico Odds, Time, and Prediction

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg is a duel between a former champ of the UFC Flyweight Division and a former title challenger. Both fighters still dream of the championship belt, and that dream may come true for the winner of the main event of UFC Mexico City.

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg Odds

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When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico
• Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: ESPN+

Brandon Moreno’s UFC Mexico Odds Favor Him to Win

Brandon Moreno enters UFC Mexico City as the betting favorite, priced at -185. Honestly, we thought the bookies were going to give even shorter odds.

First of all, it’s because he’s a two-time former flyweight champion with a 22-8-2 record. Secondly, he’s just snapped his two-fight skid with a win over Amir Albazi, proving he’s still a top contender for the title.

The two losses before happened to Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval and both were by split decision. In fact, he’s never been finished in his professional career.

But he’s finished his opponents on 16 occasions. Exactly 50% of his wins come via submission, which is evidence that he’s one of the most dangerous fighters on the ground.

Add in his Muay Thai striking background, and you’ll see that he’s a complete fighter. Most importantly, he’s got experience with fighting at a top level. And on top of everything, he’s fighting on March 29 in front of his home crowd.

Knowing all this, you understand why Moreno’s UFC Mexico odds seem somewhat generous. But maybe there’s a reason behind that? Maybe Steve Erceg can put on a show in Mexico City?

Can Steve Erceg End His Losing Streak?

Steve Erceg may be the underdog at UFC Mexico City, but he has the tools to pull off an upset. His rapid rise – going 12-1 before earning a title shot against Alexandre Pantoja – proves he belongs among the division’s best.

Though he lost that fight by unanimous decision, it was a valuable experience. The same cannot be said for his loss to Kai Kara-France ended in his next fight – he lost in a first-round TKO loss.

Nevertheless, the fact is that Erceg is a well-rounded fighter, much like Brandon Moreno. His striking and grappling are solid, and he’s shown resilience in tough matchups (e.g., against Pantoja in Brazil).

With his UFC future potentially on the line, expect him to go all-in on March 29. He needs to put on a good performance to stay in Dana White’s good books.

Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg Prediction

We love Steve Erceg, but we think he’s going to lose to Brandon Moreno on March 29. Not only do we think Moreno is the better fighter – the main piece of evidence being that he’s a two-time former champ – but he’s also fighting in front of his own crowd in Ciudad de Mexico.

Still, we do think that Erceg is a good enough fighter to fight until the final bell. However, we honestly doubt that he can win. Instead, our prediction is that Moreno will win by decision.

Pick: Brandon Moreno by Decision