Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan UFC 311 Odds, Time, and Prediction

Not only is Islam Makhachev the defending champion of the UFC Lightweight Division, but he’s also the No. 1 fighter in the UFC Men’s Pound-for-Pound Rankings. This explains why his odds to beat Arman Tsarukyan for the second time are as short as -370.

However, we don’t think his opponent should be underestimated. He gave a real war to Makhachev six years ago, and in 2025, Tsarukyan seems to be in the best shape of his life.

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Odds

When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California
• Date: Saturday, January 18, 2024
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: PPV

Reasons Why Islam Makhachev Is Favored to Win the UFC 311 Main Event

Islam Makhachev is 25-1 overall with his only loss happening in his second UFC fight, back in 2015. Since then, he’s 13-0, with four of his last wins happening in title fights. He got ahold of the championship belt by beating Charles Oliviera by submission. This was a sort of shock given that Oliveira is a 3^rd-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Makhachev’s first title defense happened against Alexander Volkanovski, whom he beat by unanimous decision. In the rematch, he beat Volk by a KO – it was the first time the Aussie fighter lost by this method. Finally, in Makhachev’s most recent fight, we saw him beat Dustin Poirier by submission.  

Now, he’s supposed to fight against Arman Tsarukyan, a fighter who he already defeated once. It happened in 2019 in a pretty close fight that saw Makhachev get taken down for the first time since joining the UFC. Does this mean that Tsarukyan stands a chance against him in the rematch?

Can Arman Tsarukyan Upset the Odds on January 18?

Arman Tsarukyan is 22-3 overall with just two losses since coming to the UFC. The first of those happened to Makhachev; the other one was against Mateusz Gamrot in 2022. Both of those losses happened by decision.

This shows that he’s a very tough guy who can go to war with practically any opponent. He’s a hell of a wrestler, has amazing grappling skills, and his striking is exceptional. Tsarukyan also seems to be in the best shape of his life judging by recent training footage.

In his most recent fight – a UFC Lightweight title eliminator against Charles Oliveira – he landed two TDs and defended four submission attempts.

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Prediction

Arman Tsarukyan has really upped his MMA game since the first fight with Islam Makhachev. However, so has the defending champ. The Dagestani fighter is the best P4P fighter in the UFC, which is why not winning on January 18 would be a huge upset. We think that won’t happen – he’s going to get the job done with no problems.

Pick: Islam Makhachev